Republicans Risk Losing Their Sun Belt Advantage

If you seek evidence that the GOP might still avert an electoral crisis in November, you’ve come to the wrong place.

While avoiding a forecast — prudently, as there are plenty of twists and turns still in store for us this cycle — Jeff Blehar expects “a bloody cull” of the GOP’s Senate candidates. Dan McLaughlin is no cheerier. If the president remains as unpopular as he is today by late October, it portends “grisly news” for the Republican Party, he wrote. If there are any signs of hope for the GOP’s senatorial class, almost all of them are in states to the north of the 35th Parallel.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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If you seek evidence that the GOP might still avert an electoral crisis in November, you’ve come to the wrong place.

While avoiding a forecast — prudently, as there are plenty of twists and turns still in store for us this cycle — Jeff Blehar expects “a bloody cull” of the GOP’s Senate candidates. Dan McLaughlin is no cheerier. If the president remains as unpopular as he is today by late October, it portends “grisly news” for the Republican Party, he wrote. If there are any signs of hope for the GOP’s senatorial class, almost all of them are in states to the north of the 35th Parallel.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.