The Not-So-Cheery Outlook for the GOP in the Senate

Back in 2018, President Trump’s job approval rating was around 43 percent, but despite doing badly in U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative elections, Republicans picked up two seats in the U.S. Senate. A lot of senators from red states were up for reelection that year, and Republicans defeated Democrats or previously Democrat-held seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while losing GOP-held seats in Arizona and Nevada.

The 2026 cycle is different, and what really ought to worry Republicans is that there are a couple of red states that ought to be at least competitive, and they simply don’t appear to be much of a race. Roy Cooper is going to walk into the U.S. Senate without breaking a sweat in North Carolina. There’s little sign that Mike Collins is giving incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff much to worry about in Georgia.

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Jim Geraghty

Jim Geraghty is the senior political correspondent of National Review.

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Back in 2018, President Trump’s job approval rating was around 43 percent, but despite doing badly in U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative elections, Republicans picked up two seats in the U.S. Senate. A lot of senators from red states were up for reelection that year, and Republicans defeated Democrats or previously Democrat-held seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while losing GOP-held seats in Arizona and Nevada.

The 2026 cycle is different, and what really ought to worry Republicans is that there are a couple of red states that ought to be at least competitive, and they simply don’t appear to be much of a race. Roy Cooper is going to walk into the U.S. Senate without breaking a sweat in North Carolina. There’s little sign that Mike Collins is giving incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff much to worry about in Georgia.