If the Democratic Party wins a majority in both houses of Congress in November 2026, I will be nervous, but it won’t keep me up at night. If the Democratic Party wins a majority in both houses of Congress in November 2028, I shall become a raging insomniac.
I don’t mean to imply by this that the election in November is unimportant. Au contraire. Justices Alito and Thomas are both getting on in years, and if something were to happen to them, President Trump would find it much easier to replace them with faithful originalists if the Senate remained in Republican hands than if it were populated by 51 Sheldon Whitehouses. Nor can one meaningfully separate what happens in 2026 from what happens in 2028 and beyond. Senate majorities, in particular, are built over time, which means that the most important predicate for a Democratic Senate majority in 2029 is a Democratic Senate majority in 2027.






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