What was the difference between a regular or even serious midterm defeat and the disaster we saw? It was the war. I don’t even think this is controversial at this point. It’s certainly not a conspiracy launched by underhanded members of , as is now alleged across social media, by those who are allowing their ideological priors to blind them. That the war caused the bottom to fall out is the consensus from pollsters left and right, and from pro–Iran war pollsters in the White House campaign operation.
Dan has been generous enough to let me have the last word on my own position, stated the night of the election, that the war was the primary explanation for the Republican blowout, even if everything else — candidate selection, , ICE controversies, DOGE, corruption — all played a serious role. So now that we’re getting into the nitty gritty, Dan and I agree on quite a bit. We agree Trump started losing ground early, that the tariffs hurt, and that the war made things worse. The important part is what turned a rebuke into a rout.
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