A few months ago, I laid out the case for why it might make sense for to defer running for president for four years. Then, as now, I still think he will ultimately run in 2028. But following the midterms, the case for Vance to wait has gotten stronger.
The midterms complicated Vance’s path to the presidency in 2028 in several ways. Most obviously, the midterms represented a significant rebuke of the administration, in which Vance is a central figure. Presidents rarely gain in popularity during their lame duck periods, and so it’s hard to imagine an incumbent vice president winning in an environment in which the president is polling below 40 percent approval.
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