The MOU Gives the Momentum to Iran

The Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been signed remotely and is in effect. By now, analysts have already aired the most troubling aspects of it: The MOU requires the United States to lift its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz as well as its sanctions on Iranian oil as a trade for the Iranians no longer firing missiles and drones at shipping in the strait. As a result, Iran, which just a day ago was suffering from the very effective American blockade, will now receive billions of dollars from oil exports over the next 60 days, at which point there is expected to be another negotiated agreement that lays out the details about the fate of the Iranian nuclear program. The United States will also refrain from “meddling” in Iranian domestic affairs (no more American support and advocacy for the Iranian people).

The MOU doesn’t say much about the Iranian nuclear program. It says that Iran’s nuclear program must “maintain the status quo,” a status that nobody really knows the details of since there have been no inspections since Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury badly damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and eliminated its top nuclear scientists. It says Iran “reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons” and agrees to hold nuclear talks, including on the down-blending of its highly enriched uranium that is near weapons-grade. But down-blending is easily reversible, much like the direction of the wind and Iranian commitments. And, if the MOU relieves the pressure President Trump created and imposed on Iran, the United States’ leverage to implement aspirational plans to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program will be diminished, if not entirely evaporated.

About the Author

Rebeccah Heinrichs

Rebeccah Heinrichs is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and the director of Hudson’s Keystone Defense Initiative.

Featured Tags

The Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been signed remotely and is in effect. By now, analysts have already aired the most troubling aspects of it: The MOU requires the United States to lift its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz as well as its sanctions on Iranian oil as a trade for the Iranians no longer firing missiles and drones at shipping in the strait. As a result, Iran, which just a day ago was suffering from the very effective American blockade, will now receive billions of dollars from oil exports over the next 60 days, at which point there is expected to be another negotiated agreement that lays out the details about the fate of the Iranian nuclear program. The United States will also refrain from “meddling” in Iranian domestic affairs (no more American support and advocacy for the Iranian people).

The MOU doesn’t say much about the Iranian nuclear program. It says that Iran’s nuclear program must “maintain the status quo,” a status that nobody really knows the details of since there have been no inspections since Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury badly damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and eliminated its top nuclear scientists. It says Iran “reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons” and agrees to hold nuclear talks, including on the down-blending of its highly enriched uranium that is near weapons-grade. But down-blending is easily reversible, much like the direction of the wind and Iranian commitments. And, if the MOU relieves the pressure President Trump created and imposed on Iran, the United States’ leverage to implement aspirational plans to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program will be diminished, if not entirely evaporated.