The GOP can squint hard enough to see a narrow path through which the party might avert a total political meltdown next week. But even if Republicans manage to avoid careening headlong into the absolute worst-case scenario on November 3, the party in power won’t be celebrating.
The range of plausible electoral outcomes has been a one-way ratchet for Democrats since Labor Day — weeks when the party’s prospects seemed to improve by the hour. Sure, there could be a polling miss. The GOP’s elusive army of low-propensity Trump fans may yet ride to its rescue. The Democratic Party’s unfit nominees and its sordid gamesmanship might convince voters to give Republican candidates a reprieve. But those aren’t the most likely scenarios. If the blue wave is as strong as the generic ballot polling suggests, most competitive races will end up in the Democratic column. And there are a lot of competitive races.
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