Democrats’ Midterm Polling Has a Missing Republican Voter Problem

Everywhere you look, the signs indicate that Democrats will have a great night on November 3.

Republican candidates in districts and states where Democrats should struggle are scrambling to distance themselves from their party’s unpopular president. Grudgingly, the president has had to steer clear of Republican candidates in competitive races. Instead, he’s energizing the GOP’s base voters in places like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. The Republican Party’s national committees are pulling up stakes in states like Georgia and North Carolina — hardly dark-blue bastions — as they “triage” resources while Democrats expand their target list.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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Everywhere you look, the signs indicate that Democrats will have a great night on November 3.

Republican candidates in districts and states where Democrats should struggle are scrambling to distance themselves from their party’s unpopular president. Grudgingly, the president has had to steer clear of Republican candidates in competitive races. Instead, he’s energizing the GOP’s base voters in places like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. The Republican Party’s national committees are pulling up stakes in states like Georgia and North Carolina — hardly dark-blue bastions — as they “triage” resources while Democrats expand their target list.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.